CURRENT OFFICIAL SLATE
This week’s official picks
Every selection is timestamped with its original sportsbook price and locked before kickoff. Refreshes can add qualifying picks, but never replace a published selection.
Checking the slate…No pick has qualified yet this week. A pick is published the moment a game’s price qualifies, any day before kickoff, when at least three sportsbooks offer both sides of the same line and the best price beats their consensus by 1% or more (1.5% for receptions lines of 2.5 or less). We only use state-licensed US sportsbooks, and every official pick is locked at one of the five biggest: DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars or Fanatics. The board is rechecked about every 10 minutes all week, from the time books post lines until kickoff.
Caps are weekly ceilings, not quotas. A category can remain below its cap when no market meets the verification and overlap rules. See the rules.
Results
Every official pick, graded from box scores.
Official record: 44–42–1 on player props, +$991 betting $100 a pick. Parlays: 9–16 (+$1,605). 122 official picks across 6 weeks, each locked before kickoff and graded from box scores. See every pick, week by week →
Profit over time
Every official pick
Records by categorySingles, parlays by price, and past weeks›
Results
Every official NBA pick, graded from box scores.
Loading…
Profit over time
Every NBA pick
Results
Every prediction-app pick, graded from box scores at the app’s price after its fee.
Loading…
Profit over time
Every prediction pick
How prediction picks work
- What qualifies: a single posts when an app’s price, after its fee, is at least 2 points under our fair chance from the sportsbooks, inside 24 hours of kickoff, one per game. Novig receptions need 3 points. Prediction parlays are paused (2–10 so far).
- NBA: its own record. A single needs 2.5 points (2 on ProphetX), one per game and up to 3 a night, on the five core stats. No NBA prediction parlays yet.
- Fees: we grade at the after-fee price, from each app’s published fees: Novig charges nothing on pre-game single bets and 0.10 × P × (1 − P) per contract on parlays; ProphetX takes 2% of net winnings on singles and nothing on parlays; Kalshi and Polymarket about 7 × P × (1 − P) per contract (P is the price). Fees change, so check the app before you trade.
- Grading: from the official box score, with play-by-play when a player is missing from it. A player who doesn’t play is voided after 36 hours; check your app’s own rules, which may differ.
- Where you can bet: availability changes by state and app (18+ or 21+ by app). Each app checks your location. We’re not affiliated with any app. Where you can bet →
How we grade
Stakes. Singles are graded at $100 a pick and parlays at $25 (from Oct 12, 2026; earlier parlays at $100), at the posted price. Prediction picks use each app’s price after its fee.
Proof. Since Oct 8, every pick goes on X before its game, so X’s timestamp proves it came first. “On X ✓” links to the post.
Stat corrections. A pick is graded once, on the official box score about an hour after the game. We re-check it for 48 hours; if the league changes the stat, the pick shows the corrected number, but its result stays as first graded. Your book may settle on the corrected stat.
Players who don’t play. No action, stake back, the same as at the sportsbook.
Final statistics exclude provisional results and pending picks. Win rate is wins ÷ (wins + losses); pushes are excluded. Profit estimates use your standard bet amount from Settings (default $100) per selection, and same-game sportsbook pricing may differ.
Better than the final price answers a simple question: did we get a better deal than someone who waited until just before kickoff? About 20 minutes before each game, we record the best price any of the licensed sportsbooks we track still offers on the same bet. If the price we posted pays more, the pick counts as better than the final price. For parlays, we compare the whole parlay, and only when every leg has a final price. Beating the final price again and again is one of the clearest signs of real skill, and it shows up much sooner than a win–loss record does.
Decided early means the stats already settled the bet before the game ended (for example, an Under that a player has already gone past). It becomes final once the official box score is in and a second check five minutes later agrees.
One losing leg establishes a parlay loss even if other games have not finished. A parlay win needs every leg graded as a win or push. Missing stats never count as zero, and a missing player row does not establish non-participation or a void.
Only snapshots verified against pregame provider offers appear here. Historical replays, unverified older submissions and personal slips are excluded. Picks before the Sept. 24–28 slate were pre-season test picks from an earlier version of the site. They are kept in the history for transparency, labeled separately, and are not part of the official record. Official picks are selected centrally and kept separate from personal slips.
Caps: 100 individual props a week and one parlay per game day (NBA: 5 singles and up to 3 two-leg parlays a night). These are ceilings, not quotas. Official picks require fresh, two-sided prices from at least three books and a price edge of at least 1% (1.5% on NFL receptions lines of 2.5 or less; 1% for NBA, 2.5% on NBA three-point Overs; 0.5 more when the best price is at FanDuel). Singles at +150 or longer also need a second, independent market to price the same line. Some pick types are paused because they lost across our tests: NBA three-point Overs at 1.5, NBA points lines under 12, and NFL rushing-yards Overs, kicking-points Overs and field-goal Unders. Picks publish whenever the board refresh finds a qualifying price, any day of the week; publication closes five minutes before kickoff. Original odds and selections are never replaced by a refresh.
To reduce overlap, official singles use one market per player/game and at most eight picks per game. Official parlays use different games, share at most one player/game with another official parlay, and use any player/game at most three times across the weekly parlay record. Weeks run Tuesday noon UTC to Tuesday noon UTC, keeping Monday-night games together.
Results show the latest 500 verified selections. Odds: The Odds API. Player stats: BALLDONTLIE. Some markets need play-by-play verification; later stat corrections may require review.
Bet This Guy does not accept wagers or guarantee winners. Terms and privacy.
Loading posted results…