Josh Allen
Over 271.5 passing yards
BUF @ MIA · Sun 1:00 PM ET
Best price−112DraftKings
$100 betwins $89at the best price
Should pay$81
DraftKings pays$89 · $8 extra
Books compared7
Last 10 gamesOver in 6
NFL picks are live · NBA starts Oct 20
Picks you can check.
NFL + NBA PLAYER PROP PICKS
Picks you can check.
Results you can verify.
Bet This Guy posts an official NFL or NBA player prop pick only when the best sportsbook price beats the market. Every pick is timestamped before the game starts and graded in public, wins and losses.
Official record: 44–42–1 on player props, +$991 betting $100 a pick. Parlays: 9–16 (+$1,605). 122 official picks across 6 weeks, each locked before kickoff and graded from box scores. See every pick, week by week →
Free · No credit card · 21+ where legalHow every prop is rated
Good valueFair priceOverpriced
Example card. Ratings compare the best sportsbook price to the market’s fair price; they never guarantee a result.
Locked before the gameTimestamped with the original price
Graded in publicWins, losses and the $100 result
Checked against closingDid we beat the final price?
HOW IT WORKS
How a pick gets posted.
No hunches and no favorite players. A pick posts only when the numbers say the price is good.
We price every prop
Lines from the big licensed US sportsbooks for every posted NFL and NBA player prop, rechecked every 10 minutes, every day of the week.
Only real edges qualify
A pick locks the moment a DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars or Fanatics price beats the sportsbooks’ consensus by at least 1%, with three or more books pricing both sides.
Locked, then graded
Each pick is timestamped before kickoff and graded from box scores. Nothing gets deleted, and the losses stay up too.
THE BOARD
A straight answer on every prop.
- ✓ Rated Good value, Fair price or Overpriced
- ✓ What $100 wins at the best price
- ✓ Line movement and recent games
- ✓ Search any player, build parlays
- ✓ No sportsbook in your state? Prediction app prices (Novig, ProphetX)
THE RECORD
A complete public record.
- ✓ Every official pick, week by week
- ✓ Profit at $100 a pick
- ✓ How often we beat the kickoff price
- ✓ Parlays graded leg by leg
- ✓ Prediction app picks with their own record
WHO’S BEHIND IT
Hi, I’m Tim.
I built Bet This Guy because most pick accounts only show you their wins. Here, every pick is posted before the game, at a price you can actually bet, and graded in public, losses included.
No paid picks, no premium tier, no “locks of the week.” Just the price, the reason, and the result.
Questions, or think we graded something wrong? Email me at support@betthisguy.com. I read every one.
— Tim, founder of Bet This Guy
FREE PICK ALERTS
Every pick on the record.
Wins and losses.
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